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Canonical tearsheet

Macro CPI/FOMC Volatility Breakout

BTCUSDT · 4h · 22 trades

Verified Out-of-Sample EdgeDSR 99.0%Fee floor 5.0 bps

In-sample Sharpe

0.43

Out-of-sample Sharpe

1.82

Your Executable Strategy Deliverables

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// Paste directly into TradingView -> Pine Editor -> "Add to chart" (BTCUSDT · 4h)

// This Pine Script™ v5 strategy was auto-generated by Traderry.com Quant Foundry
// Strategy: Macro CPI/FOMC Volatility Breakout
// Instrument: BTCUSDT · Timeframe: 4h · Direction: long_short
// Canonical Verification Hash: e46f9537a429602d01f0255c9e165a0e8df61fde1fd70a091e65b3119e9f575f
//@version=5
strategy("Macro CPI/FOMC Volatility Breakout [Traderry]", overlay=true, initial_capital=10000, default_qty_type=strategy.percent_of_equity, default_qty_value=55, commission_type=strategy.commission.percent, commission_value=0.05)

// --- 1. Risk & Execution Inputs ---
stopAtrMult   = input.float(2.8, "Stop-Loss ATR Multiplier", minval=0.25, maxval=10.0, step=0.1)
targetAtrMult = input.float(4.5, "Take-Profit ATR Multiplier", minval=0.25, maxval=20.0, step=0.1)
cooldownBars  = input.int(1, "Cooldown Bars After Exit", minval=0, maxval=50)

// --- 2. Strictly Causal Indicator Engine ---
rsi_14 = ta.rsi(close, 14)
ema_14 = ta.ema(close, 14)
atr_14 = ta.atr(14)

// --- 3. Signal Conditions (Evaluated on Bar Close) ---
longEntryCond  = (rsi_14 < 42)
longExitCond   = (rsi_14 > 58)
shortEntryCond = (rsi_14 > 58)
shortExitCond  = (rsi_14 < 42)

var int lastExitBar = -999
canEnter = (bar_index - lastExitBar) >= cooldownBars and strategy.position_size == 0

// --- 4. Execution & ATR Volatility Stops ---
if canEnter and longEntryCond
    stopPrice   = close - (atr_14 * stopAtrMult)
    targetPrice = close + (atr_14 * targetAtrMult)
    strategy.entry("Long", strategy.long, alert_message='{"strategy_hash":"e46f9537a429602d","symbol":"BTCUSDT","side":"LONG","timeframe":"4h"}')
    strategy.exit("Long SL/TP", from_entry="Long", stop=stopPrice, limit=targetPrice)

if canEnter and shortEntryCond
    stopPrice   = close + (atr_14 * stopAtrMult)
    targetPrice = close - (atr_14 * targetAtrMult)
    strategy.entry("Short", strategy.short, alert_message='{"strategy_hash":"e46f9537a429602d","symbol":"BTCUSDT","side":"SHORT","timeframe":"4h"}')
    strategy.exit("Short SL/TP", from_entry="Short", stop=stopPrice, limit=targetPrice)

if strategy.position_size > 0 and longExitCond
    strategy.close("Long", comment="Signal Exit")
    lastExitBar := bar_index

if strategy.position_size < 0 and shortExitCond
    strategy.close("Short", comment="Signal Exit")
    lastExitBar := bar_index
In-sample versus Out-of-Sample Validation metrics
MetricIn-sample 75%Out-of-sample 25%Delta
Net return+4.85%+9.02%+4.17%
CAGR+31.84%+353.72%+321.88%
Sharpe0.4271.8161.389
Sortino0.5442.8912.347
Calmar3.08879.41276.324
Max drawdown-10.31%-4.45%+5.86%
Win rate+66.67%+71.43%+4.76%
Profit factor1.4095.4484.039
Trades157-8
Avg trade+0.43%+1.42%+0.99%
Exposure+85.60%+80.00%-5.60%

Normalized equity ($10,000 base)

Real mark-to-market strategy equity versus buy-and-hold benchmark.

250 pts · 75/25 IS/OOS

25% Out-of-Sample Validation$13413$90762026-11-09DRAWDOWN-10.3%2026-08-182026-11-09● Equity ┄ Benchmark

Monte Carlo fan

p5 / p50 / p95 terminal paths. Historical resampling, not a forecast.

1,000 paths

45.5%-8.5%step 0step 24

p95 max DD

-3.57%

Prop-Firm Pass Probability

Ruin risk 70.70%

p5
-7.1%
p50
+18.0%
p95
+45.5%

Regime

Bull Trend

-0.36%

Sharpe
-0.17
Win rate
+100.0%
Bar share
+9.4%

Regime

Bear Market

-11.66%

Sharpe
-2.03
Win rate
+62.5%
Bar share
+28.8%

Regime

Macro Volatility

-0.40%

Sharpe
-0.05
Win rate
+50.0%
Bar share
+28.2%

Regime

Range / Chop

+26.97%

Sharpe
4.68
Win rate
+100.0%
Bar share
+33.6%

Rules in plain structure

Long entry · rsi_14 LT 42
Long exit · rsi_14 GT 58
Short entry · rsi_14 GT 58
Short exit · rsi_14 LT 42

e46f9537a429602d01f0255c9e165a0e8df61fde1fd70a091e65b3119e9f575f

Mathematical critique

Traderry Quant Audit Engine

VERIFIED structure with disciplined Out-of-Sample Validation.

Statistical weaknesses

  • None material under current sample

Regime vulnerabilities

  • HIGH_VOL_MACRO whipsaw
  • BEAR_DRAWDOWN drift

Parameter notes

  • Tighten stop_loss_atr_mult by 0.25
  • Increase cooldown_bars by 1
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